Analysis, trends and insights

Cheltenham Pulse will provide in depth analysis on the Cheltenham Festival. We look at various angles to identify anomalies over an extended period that may provide clues as to those likely to be more successful and equally ones to avoid.

The Approach

Data

We start with data, lots of data - over 1,000,000 lines of data covering horses from UK and Ireland that have run since 2016. Analysing the data enables us to understand the macro picture - Willie Mullins trains more winners than anyone else over an extended period, to the micro picture, Dan Skelton has a better strike rate than Mullins at the Festival over the last three years. Very simplistic but you have to start somewhere.

Going Deeper

There are trainers that have a higher percentage of French bred horses than others. How do they perform with a particular trainer? Would you be surprised to know there is huge difference between two of the top trainers in this one area?

Is there a major difference between hurdle and chase success for a trainer?

How have certain trainers or jockeys performed in handicaps and non-handicaps?

Are there jockey and trainer partnerships that have delivered results which are highly variable from the norm?

Strike rate is one thing but how does that translate to profit (or loss)?

Race Patterns

Trainers are creatures of habit. The best have plans laid out and look to execute these to maximise results. The best also learn and evolve, therefore it's a moving target but there is enough data to help inform who is best prepared when it comes to the Festival.

We will provide detailed analysis on key races to consider when it comes to preparing for the festival. Examples would be the Timeform Novices at Trials day which has resulted in a number of Festival winners and placed horses. Specifically, in 2026 Quebecois was 2nd in the Timeform Novices and was 2nd in the Ultima. In 2025, Jagwar won the Timeform Novices and also won the plate at the Festival. In 2024, Ginny's Destiny won the Timeform Novices and was second in the Turners which in 2023 was won by Stage Star who also won the Timeform Novices. It's clearly an excellent prep race and one for the notebook. We will detail out the key races which may help build ante-post books, should that be something you are interested in.

Insights from Recent Festivals

Analyzing race outcomes from the previous festival is another angle to carefully consider. In 2026 we had horses like Lossiemouth, Gaelic Warrior, Kargese, Woodhooh & Dinoblue winning once again at the Festival. Which horses are likely to return to the winners enclosure in 2027?

Age can be another interesting angle and we will highlight this particularly in championship races for the 2027 festival.

Out of scope

I'm not a fan of patterns of favourites or certain prices of horses in previous years. I don't analyse Betfair prices or any in-running aspects. Others may provide a perspective on this but it's not an angle I take.

Indeed the same can largely be applied to the weight of horses in handicaps or handicap marks relative to prior years. Where that can be useful is to provide a guide on where the likely floor is for a race to determine if a horse will "get in".

Conclusion

Trainers, jockeys (and horses, through advanced training methods and science) continue to develop and evolve. There is no silver bullet for getting the winners - if you think you've found it, let me know! What we can do is analyze what has happened previously and use the data to inform more likely outcomes.

As the season evolves we will highlight key races, results and perspectives to help inform you on those getting into a good position for March 2027.

Happy racing!