Pulse Check
Path to Cheltenham

Detailed prep race analysis for the Cheltenham Festival
* note all data is from 2016 unless otherwise stated.

APPROACH

We have reviewed data from the last ten years to identify races in which a horse has run and subsequently gone on to win at the Cheltenham Festival in the same season.

We have included races in which there are multiple occurrences, at least two, and this has produced a list of 111 races to consider as part of the well-galloped path, leading to the Cheltenham Festival.

As this is a significant amount of data we have summarised this, and also have a calendar which you can save to your chosen device with all 111 races included.

PATH SUMMARY

PREP RACES WITH 2+ WINNERS

111

MOST WINNERS FROM ONE RACE

MOST PREP RACES IN ONE MONTH

PATH TO CHELTENHAM

The following races have produced the most Cheltenham Festival winners since 2016:

(9) Channelle / Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, February)
(9) John Durkan Memorial Chase (Punchestown, November)
(9) Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Fairyhouse, December)

Number of horses that ran in these races and went on to win at the Cheltenham Festival that season in brackets.

PATH BY COURSE

PATH BY MONTH

PATH BY RACE TYPE

prep race type details for the Cheltenham Festival

PULSE STOPPER

British premier days (Tingle Creek, King George, Fighting Fifth) appear on the 2+ list but at a maximum of 4 winners (Tingle Creek 4, Fighting Fifth 3, King George 2). Chepstow, Wetherby, Haydock, Exeter, Newcastle: 1 listed prep each.

Of the top three path races (Channelle Pharma, Hatton's Grace and John Durkan) over 40% do not win the prep race before winning at the Festival. It's worth noting that in the John Durkan, which is over 2m 4f, almost as many go to to win the Gold Cup (4) as the Ryanair (5). From 2022/23 season, the John Durkan - Gold Cup path was followed by just 7 horses with 4 winners and two placed.

PULSE INSIGHT

Of the 111 prep races for the Festival, 64 (58%) are in Ireland with the remaining 47 (42%) in Great Britain. That said, the course with most prep races resulting in Festival winners is shared between Leopardstown and Cheltenham with 22 prep races each.

Unsurprisingly for Cheltenham, January sees most winners with 23 Festival firsts from 7 races as we have both the New Year meeting and Trials Day later in January.

The race producing most Festival winners at Cheltenham on Trials Day is the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase which has resulted in 7 winners - by far the strongest trial in Great Britain.

The Dublin Racing Festival (DRF), which takes place on 30–31 Jan 2027, has three of the 8–9 winner races on one weekend, including:

(9) Channelle / Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle

(8) Irish Champion Hurdle

(8) Irish Gold Cup

At the DRF in all there are ten races which have produced forty-four winners in the last decade making up 36% of the Festival winners.

PULSE EDGE

PULSE SUMMARY

Champions Paths are well defined

The winning-most races at the Cheltenham Festival where a horse has ran in more than one of the 111 top prep races that season include the Champions Chase (9/10), Stayers Hurdle (8/10), Champion Hurdle (7/10) and Gold Cup (7/10). As the season unfolds this should help produce a short list of the most likely candidates come March.

The only other race with a high occurrence of multiple prep races ran by the winner is the Cross Country (8/10), which is expected due to the relatively small number of prep races of that nature.

PULSE VERDICT

Pulse Rate

Ireland has the top prep races for winners 7/8 | 87.5%

Pulse Stopper

Until last year, from 2017, the King George only included one Festival winner (Envoi Allen winning the 2023 Ryanair)

The John Durkan to Gold Cup path has a strike rate of 57% since season 2022/2023

Pulse Insight

The Timeform Novices Handicap Chase, at Cheltenham Trials day in January, has produced 7 winners

Pulse Edge

Champions paths are well defined and should be tracked through the season

Path to Cheltenham Calendar

At this time not all race times are published for all prep races. Regardless, we know the scheduled dates and therefore have been able to produce a calendar for all 111 races.

It's recommended that before you save all dates you create a separate calendar and colour to make it easily identifiable.

DOWNLOAD CALENDAR

ALL DATA FROM 2016 UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED

LAST UPDATED SEPT 2026

Pulse Check Path to Cheltenham

Detailed prep race analysis for the Cheltenham Festival * note all data is from 2016 unless otherwise stated.