Trainer Analysis
N J Henderson

Detailed trainer analysis for Nicky Henderson at the Cheltenham Festival
* note all data is from 2016 unless otherwise stated.

N J Henderson
Great Britain

BIO

With 78 festival winners (25 since 2016) Nicky Henderson is the most successful British trainer in festival history.

His first winner was See You Then in the 1985 Champion Hurdle which he has won a record nine times. He also has a total of six Champion Chase wins and two Gold Cups.

After a challenging 2024, Henderson has come back with two solid years culminating in three wins at the 2026 Festival including the opener with Old Park Star.

FESTIVAL WINS

25 STRIKE RATE

8.6%

PROFIT (LOSS)

(£92)

WINS & STRIKE RATE BY YEAR

Graph showing winners and strike rate for Nicky Henderson at the Cheltenham Festival since 2016

WINS & STRIKE RATE ANALYSIS

Although Henderson's best years were in 2019 and 2020 with four winners, he actually had his best year from a strike rate perspective in 2026 when he was 3/20, a strike rate of 15%. When analysing any two consecutive years, his last two, at 13.1% (5/38), are his best in the last decade.

Pulse Verdict:

Henderson has reduced the number of runners by almost half since 2016/2017 when he averaged 37 runners to 2025/2026 when he averaged 19 runners. The strike rate in 2016/2017 averaged at 6.8% whereas 2025/2026 averaged at 13.1%, almost double of that from a decade ago with half the runners.

MOST SUCCESSFUL FESTIVAL RACES

Supreme Novices

Champion Hurdle

Arkle Challenge Trophy

Champion Chase

BetMGM Cup (Coral Cup)

WINNERS BY RACE TYPE

PULSE STOPPER

First Time Headgear

Since 2016 Henderson has sent out 32 horses in first time headgear and has returned only one winner – a 3.1% strike rate. In comparison horses running in headgear, not for the first time are 4/54 (S/R 7.4%) which would have returned a profit of £11 to £1 level stakes.

Pulse Stopper Verdict:

The overall record for horses in first time headgear at the festival is 22/445, a strike rate of 4.7%. Henderson is significantly lower than the overall average despite being the top trainer from Great Britain.

PULSE INSIGHTS

Henderson has had 138 runners in handicaps since 2016 and has only six winners - a 4.3% strike rate - four winners over hurdles and just two chase winners in 47 handicap chase events.

Interestingly he has won the Coral Cup – called the BetMGM Cup in 2026 - on three occasions (strike rate of 10% and profit of over £10 to a £1 level stake)

Pulse Insight Verdict:

Henderson's handicap strike rate is 50% lower than his overall average. If you exclude handicaps Henderson has a much improved 12.5% strike rate.

PULSE EDGE

Although since 2016 if backing all of his horses Henderson would have returned a loss of around £92 to a £1 level stake, since the 2024 Festival, backing all his horses would have produced a 13.2% strike rate and a profit of over £15 to £1 level stakes.

Stable jockey Nico De Boinville has ridden 64% of Henderson's winners since 2016 though taking the last two years Henderson's other jockeys have a strike rate of 17.6% and a profit of over £27 to £1 level stakes.

Pulse Edge Verdict:

In 2025/26, other jockeys, away from stable jockey de Boinville, have produced a positive SP return to £1 level stakes.

PULSE VERDICT

Henderson's Strongest Festival Targets

Champion Chase 3/5 | 60%

Arkle 3/7 | 42.9%

Supreme Novices 4/14 | 28.6%

Champion Hurdle 4/23 | 17.4%

Henderson is 3 for 7 in the Arkle but his 3 Champion Chase wins (Altior winning twice) have come from only five runners.

PULSE SUMMARY

Pulse Rate

Champion Chase 3/5 | 60%

Pulse Stopper

First Time Headgear 1/32 | 3.1%

Pulse Insight

Non-handicaps 12.5% v 4.3% Handicaps

Pulse Edge

Headgear (not first time) 4/54 | 7.4%

ALL DATA FROM 2016 UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED

LAST UPDATED SEPT 2026

Trainer Analysis N J Henderson

Detailed trainer analysis for Nicky Henderson at the Cheltenham Festival * note all data is from 2016 unless otherwise stated.

BIO